Māori own huge areas of land in Aotearoa but as climate change accelerates and carbon markets take hold, many are being backed into a corner.

Māori connections to the whenua and ngahere run deep, rooted in whakapapa and sustained through generations. Today, that whenua is at a crossroads – squeezed by economic pressures, environmental threats and shifting regulations.

A majority of whenua Māori is held collectively under legal protections (like Te Ture Whenua Māori Act) that prevent its sale, reflecting a duty to preserve it for future generations. At the same time, many Māori landowners are looking for ways to sustainably develop their land to support their communities. 

According to a new report published by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE), Māori play a pivotal role in New Zealand forestry, making up a large part of the workforce and owning extensive forestry assets – about 190,000 hectares of plantation forests and 570,000 hectares of native forest, with Māori forestry assets valued at $4.3 billion in 2022. These figures highlight both the significant opportunities and responsibilities tied to whenua Māori.

The current pressures are complex. Economic pressures include the need for income-generating land uses in often isolated or marginal lands – land which is considered of poor quality and does not have the potential to produce much profit or has limited farming value  (for example, on erosion-prone hill country). Traditional pastoral farming can be challenging on some Māori land, and securing finance for development can be difficult under collective ownership structures.

Environmental pressures are mounting too. Many Māori communities are on the frontlines of climate change and ecological degradation. The latest state of the environment report, released at the beginning of April, warns that increasingly extreme storms and weather events driven by climate change are “threaten[ing] our livelihoods and quality of life for generations to come”. Recent severe storms – such as Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 – caused landslides and infrastructure damage in regions with large Māori land holdings, highlighting vulnerabilities like soil erosion. 

There are also biodiversity concerns. Restoring native forests and protecting indigenous species on Māori land is a priority for many iwi but it must be balanced against economic needs. Regulatory factors add further complexity. Changing land-use rules and climate policies directly affect Māori land decisions. For instance, the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) creates financial incentives for planting forests on eligible land, while other policies like resource management reforms or local land use plans, can constrain or guide how land is used. Māori landowners are navigating a challenging landscape in their efforts to achieve economic sustainability while at the same time practising environmental kaitiakitanga under evolving rules.

“Māori also have unique relationships with their whenua and ngahere that need to be considered when discussing land use and land use change. Many whānau, hapū and iwi aspire to sustainably utilise their whenua Māori through afforestation – as part of protecting Papatūānuku​.” This statement from the PCE’s April 2025 Alt-F Reset report captures the heart of the issue – Māori aspirations are not just about profits but about healing the land and securing its wellbeing for future generations. The challenge is how to realise these desires with the current pressures.

The risky business of carbon credits

One of the most significant forces reshaping Māori land use today is the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). The NZ ETS puts a price on carbon emissions and awards credits for carbon sequestration, effectively turning forests into sources of carbon credits that can be sold for revenue. With carbon credit prices currently around $50.83 per tonne, the scheme has made planting forests – sometimes purely for carbon storage – an attractive economic idea for land that might otherwise yield little income. The PCE says that current climate policies, especially NZ ETS settings, are “driving a wave of land use change to carbon forestry” – forests being established to earn carbon credits – “with significant environmental, economic and social risks”.

By the end of 2024, over 650,000 ha of forest land was registered in the NZ ETS​. Many Māori land trusts and incorporations are among those considering or actively enrolling land. If a Māori land block that was previously scrub or pasture is planted in trees, the owners can receive carbon credits annually as the forest grows. At current prices, a fast-growing pine plantation can yield a substantial income from carbon alone, which can often outweigh returns from sheep and cattle farming on the same land. This dynamic creates a strong financial incentive for afforestation, including on whenua Māori that has been underutilised or is not suitable for agriculture.

Not all forests are equal in the NZ ETS. Exotic plantation species (like radiata pine, which dominates NZ forestry) grow quickly and store carbon at a high rate, generating more credits in the short term. Native forests grow more slowly and earn credits more gradually. The PCE report notes that radiata pine has become the preferred species for both traditional timber production and carbon farming in New Zealand. This can put Māori landowners in a predicament where cultural and ecological values favour native reforestation but the economics under the ETS favour fast-growing exotics (see: The real reason Māori are on both sides of the tangled pine forest debate).

The commissioner found that for many Māori landowners hoping to restore indigenous forests, “carbon forestry is often the only option. Planting in exotics first and registering the land in the NZ ETS provides upfront funding and probably the only option to finance a transition to native forest”​. Effectively, many Māori landowners are initially planting hardy exotic trees (earning carbon income), and gradually replacing them with natives over time, or allowing them to revert naturally to natives. Some iwi and hapū are exploring this phased approach to balance immediate income with long-term restoration goals, but this presents its own challenges.

The NZ ETS rules are constantly in flux, which adds regulatory uncertainty. The government has considered tightening the permanent forest category to limit extensive permanent pine plantations. The PCE’s Alt-F Reset report recommends reforming the ETS – for example, phasing out the use of forest offsets for fossil fuel emissions and reviewing regulations that disincentivise native afforestation​. Such changes would have major implications for Māori forestry investments. 

For now, the influx of carbon revenue can be used for marae development, dividends to whānau, or funding conservation projects. It also comes with trade-offs though, like fewer jobs than productive farming, the potential loss of open land for food production, and environmental risks if not managed well.

Many Māori land blocks are already involved in production forestry, which is growing trees for timber harvest. In regions like Te Tairāwhiti, Māori-owned land has been leased or developed for pine plantations for decades, providing employment and income. The PCE emphasises that production forests still have an important role and where forests are intended to be harvested, owners have “every incentive to look after them”. Well-managed production forests can coexist with long-term land stewardship, for example, by preventing erosion on steep hills and eventually allowing native regrowth after harvest rotations. 

It could all burn down

Wildfire risk is a growing issue. Large-scale forests, especially plantations of pine or other exotics, can become fuel for wildfires in hotter, drier conditions. Historically, New Zealand’s wet climate meant wildfires were relatively rare, but climate change is changing that. The PCE report documents that losses of plantation forest to wildfire have risen from an average of 321 ha burned per year in the 1980s to about 1,159 ha per year between 2015 and 2021. As the climate warms, the frequency and intensity of wildfires is increasing and even well-established forests become more vulnerable when stressed by drought or disease​. 

Māori communities with forestry assets are acutely aware of these risks, as a major fire could wipe out not only the forest ecosystem but also years of carbon credits or future timber income. Native forests, once mature, tend to be less flammable than plantations (a diverse, damp native canopy is harder to burn), which is one reason there is long-term appeal in shifting toward natives. Adapting to wildfire risk – through fire breaks, monitoring, and choosing resilient species – is now an important part of future-proofing whenua Māori.

Another risk factor is biosecurity and pests. New Zealand’s forests, both native and exotic, are exposed to invasive organisms – from the fungal pathogen causing kauri dieback in ancient native forests, to pine needle blight affecting plantations. One concern raised by the PCE is the limited preparedness for exotic pathogens that could affect native trees. A recent review found “very limited capability and capacity to predict the impact of exotic pathogens on our natural estate” and that surveillance for diseases in native forests is relatively weak.

For Māori kaitiaki managing native bush, this is alarming. A new disease could decimate taonga species before there is a chance to respond. Plantation forestry also carries biosecurity risks – reliance on a single species like radiata pine means a future pest or disease targeting pine could have devastating economic effects. The forest industry does invest in biosecurity and the report stresses that this needs to be an ongoing priority. 

But still, the future is bright

Despite the challenges, the reports have a note of cautious optimism about the future of whenua Māori, as long as policies and practices adjust to empower Māori kaitiakitanga. Incorporating te ao Māori is seen as crucial for sustainable outcomes. This means involving iwi and hapū in decision-making, blending scientific and Indigenous knowledge, and valuing concepts like whakapapa and mauri. Many on-the-ground examples already exist, with iwi-led restoration projects, native planting initiatives, and carbon farming ventures that reinvest profits into local communities and ecological restoration.

Policy directions are starting to acknowledge these realities. The PCE’s Alt-F Reset report recommends that Māori be “engaged from the outset” in any reset of forestry policies, recognising Māori as essential partners in shaping the forestry future. This reflects a broader shift from seeing whenua Māori as just an economic resource to be managed, to seeing Māori landowners as innovators of sustainable land use. Already, some Māori entities are pioneering models of “mixed forestry” – combining pockets of plantation for income, permanent native forests for carbon and biodiversity and other land uses like horticulture or eco-tourism.

Whenua Māori is at a pivotal intersection of past and future. On one hand, it carries the weight of history – dispossession, legal battles, and the responsibility to help heal the people that belong to it. On the other hand, it is full of future potential – to sequester carbon, to revive native forests, drive rural economic development, and showcase how indigenous knowledge can enrich environmental management. The current pressures of climate change, economic need, and policy shifts are real and pressing. However, the evidence from the latest reports suggests that with supportive policies and a respect for Māori values, these lands can be a foundation for both climate resilience and cultural resurgence. As the PCE puts it, the forests we establish today – whether for carbon, timber, or conservation – will shape the landscape of Aotearoa for generations.

This is Public Interest Journalism funded by NZ On Air.