As support for the coalition dips, the PM and his soon-to-be-deputy have engaged in a public war of words. Stewart Sowman-Lund has the details in today’s edition of The Bulletin.
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Support slips
If there was ever a political honeymoon, or even a wedding reception, the fun is well and truly over for the coalition government. A pair of new polls released yesterday, including one for TVNZ, showed the Labour Party would be back in government were an election held today. That’s on top of another recent poll – from corporate pollsters Talbot Mills – showing exactly the same thing. The 1News Verian poll, reported by TVNZ political editor Maiki Sherman, showed National was down three points to 34% while Labour was up four points to 33%. Despite still being nose ahead, National would not be able to form a government with the support of Act (9%) and New Zealand First (5%) – the left bloc of Labour, the Greens (10%) and Te Pāti Māori (4%) would have a whisker thin majority of 61 seats. Meanwhile, a new Taxpayers Union-Curia poll showed a similar result – National 0.6% ahead of Labour but, again, unable to form a government.
Notably, neither poll showed any sort of Labour red wave – National was actually ahead in both. But as Jenna Lynch observed on ThreeNews, the numbers for National aren’t anywhere near where the party would like them to be at this time of the political cycle.
Not feeling the love
It may be Valentine’s Day on Friday, but as the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan wrote (paywalled), the polls show Christopher Luxon and the coalition aren’t feeling the love from the voters. As Coughlan pointed out, it could be a sign of worse things to come, even if the message from the government has consistently been that things are on the up. A net 16% of those polled for the the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll believe the country is on the wrong track. The Verian poll reported that 50% thought the government was on the wrong track, compared to 39% who believe things were heading in the right direction. “Why that matters is the right track/wrong track is often treated as a leading indicator of a government’s party vote performance,” explained Coughlan. “If it is negative and trending negative, there’s a good chance the government’s popularity will continue to wane.”
‘Political sideshows’
If poor polling was stressful enough, the coalition is facing another perception issue: in-fighting. The prime minister has been pulled into what he has labelled “political sideshows” from his soon-to-be-deputy prime minister. The most serious of these involved a letter Act leader David Seymour sent in support of Philip Polkinghorne, prior to the eye surgeon being charged with murder and before Seymour became a minister. Christopher Luxon told reporters that sending the letter was “ill-advised” but there hadn’t been a breach of the cabinet manual. However, in extraordinary interview with RNZ’s Checkpoint, Seymour retaliated. “What’s ill-advised is commenting when you don’t know all the facts and criticising a local MP for doing their work, which is standing up for their constituents,” Seymour told host Lisa Owen. “He’s [Luxon] entitled to say that, but I would say that before criticising a local MP for doing their job you should know all the facts.”
Politik’s Richard Harman (paywalled) said the remarks underscored a tricky situation for the prime minister: does he risk imploding the coalition or continue allowing misbehaving MPs from parties outside National to get away with, well, “ill-advised” actions? As RNZ’s Jo Moir said moments ago on Morning Report, the prime minister can’t exactly “fire” his coalition partners (NZ First leader Winston Peters has also been involved in recent distractions, notably a public dispute with the Cook Islands PM). The situation involving Seymour, wrote Harman, also appeared to confirm speculation among some government MPs that there was a “growing animosity” between the Act leader and Luxon, quoting one Labour veteran who bluntly said: “Seymour has just told Luxon publicly to get f..ked.” National has reportedly gone so far as to indicate at the Boundaries Commission that it would be prepared to see Seymour’s electorate of Epsom abolished as part of a review.
Red tape minister tangled in red tape
That’s not all. Seymour could face action from the speaker of the house after attempting to drive a Land Rover up the steps of parliament yesterday, stopping after security intervened. As the “red tape” minister, Seymour turned the drama into one of unnecessary regulation. “There’s always a bit of red tape trying to stop you doing something for a good cause in this country, isn’t there,” said Seymour, reported the Herald’s Adam Pearse. (The 77-year-old Land Rover is being driven the length of the country as part of a fundraising drive, and the exact same vehicle was driven onto parliament’s steps more than four decades ago). Luxon told reporters at his post-cabinet press conference the matter was between Seymour and the speaker, though the Herald’s Claire Trevett (paywalled) described the prime minister as having a “resigned look” as he faced questions over the “political sideshows”.
We may never know just how tense things really are behind closed doors – but the perception of instability alone could be enough.