Myra Williamson, a senior lecturer in international law at AUT with a personal connection to Syria, explains the significance of the downfall of the Assad regime and her hopes for a peaceful transition to a democratic future for the country.

We have just witnessed a historic day in Syria. The former president, Bashar Al-Assad, flew out of Damascus on Sunday. It’s no surprise that he has sought refuge in Russia – a state that has long-supported both him and his father. The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, is already wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Ukraine; his new guest will be wanted for trial too, either in the Hague or back in Syria. 

Iran and Russia came to Al-Assad’s aid in 2012 and 2015 respectively to protect him from his own people. The Syrian regime would have fallen years ago had it not been for Russia, which has been a steadfast ally of the regime, protecting its own interests which include the deep-sea naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim Air Base. Russia has stood by “their man” – until yesterday. 

Russia has now decided to cut its losses and offer him and his family asylum. The Al-Assad regime is finished: this is worthy of celebration. It’s a great victory for Syrians. Justice for Al-Assad is now much closer than it has even been but his new asylum arrangement in Russia will be problematic for achieving justice.

Control of the country is complete

The Syrian fighters, who have been fighting for freedom from the Assads (senior and junior) under numerous banners, at least since the Arab Spring spread to the streets of Syria in February 2011, have now declared victory in the historic Umayyad mosque in Damascus. 

The rebels have control, as of this morning, Monday December 9, of the entire country except for the north-eastern area – the provinces of Al-Raqqah and Al-Hasakah are controlled by the Kurdish group the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is supported by the US and is the military wing of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), but (at least for now) they appear to be singing from the same song sheet as the rebels under the leadership of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS – Liberation of the Levant Organisation). There is no fighting between SDF and HTS at the moment: they are equally happy to be rid of the Assad regime. They will work hard to keep the peace and build a better future for Syria. There has to be a sense that whatever comes next will be better than the dictatorship: the Assad regime that lasted from 1971-2024 is one of the longest, most brutal in the world. 

It is really no surprise that the Syrian army, which was never built to be a loyal army, and which relied on conscription, has not defended the cities. There have been reports of military personnel (many of whom were being forced to serve as it is a legal requirement for young men) changing into civilian clothes and joining the rebels. The Al-Assad statues and posters – hated by the vast majority of Syrians – have been destroyed in the streets. Many of the people fighting for freedom have never known a Syria that was not controlled by a member of the Al-Assad family. 

My experience in Syria

My life has been intertwined with Syria since marrying a Syrian man. I have heard and seen first-hand so much of what Syrians have lived through. I’ve been to Syria and lived there for extended periods of time in 1996-97, 2001, 2004, 2007 and for over a year in 2009-2010 while teaching at the ICARDA International School of Aleppo. When I first arrived in December 1996 I saw massive posters and wall murals of Hafez Al-Assad; his picture hung in almost every shop, from the rearview mirror and in the back window of every taxi. I didn’t know what to make of the country: it seemed like an odd mix of communism and George Orwell’s 1984. I learnt quickly that I was not to say anything at all about the government, at any time. There were always people listening and potentially reporting on their neighbours, family and friends. The dreaded mukhhabaraat (secret police) wielded immense power – with multiple branches, it literally had people everywhere on the payroll. 

In 2000 I had a lot of hope when Hafez Al-Assad died. Strangely, world leaders attended his funeral and mourned his death; the presidency was handed to his son, Bashar, who has been in the role for 24 years. Hafez was a criminal – and responsible for between 25,000 and 40,000 deaths in the Hama massacre of 1982 – but Bashar turned out to be much worse. He oversaw the deaths of at least 300,000 of his own people, the exodus of about 5.5 million Syrians who have sought refuge anywhere (and often drowned in the process), and another 7.2 million internally displaced Syrians. This is the world’s largest refugee crisis and Bashar Al-Assad is to blame. The Syrian people have paid a very high price for this regime. 

The international community has largely stood back (aside from Russia and Iran). In December 2013, I called for the international community to intervene, utilising the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) principle to help the Syrian people in the face of massive war crimes and crimes against humanity. On December 15, 2013, a day when barrel bombs were being dropped on the people of Aleppo, I argued at a conference in Kuwait for the international community to use R2P to intervene on behalf of the thousands of women and children (at least). But no one came to save them. There were Obama’s famous “red lines”, which were crossed, yet the international community just left the people to their fate. If they want to make judgments now, and offer advice about the future of Syria, they ought to first check what they did to help bring this dictatorship down.

How did the fall of the Al-Assad regime unfold?

During the past 10 days, starting on November 27, the rebel fighters – diverse groups that are now united under HTS – took city by city in a lightning-speed take-down of the dictatorship. The HTS commander “Abu-Mohammad Al-Jolani”, who has now reverted to using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has made statements telling the fighters to leave alone anyone who puts down their weapons. He has called for a peaceful transition of power and he has acknowledged that “a new history is being written”.

However, there is reason for caution because HTS is a Syrian fighting group formed from the co-operation of various Salafist groups including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front, which cut all ties with Al-Qaeda in July 2016 when it declared that it was an “independent entity and not an extension of previous organisations or factions”. To its credit, HTS has set up a stable, civil system in Idlib in the north-west of the country. But Human Rights Watch has noted that HTS has not been willing to allow opposition voices in Idlib.

Regardless of these very reasonable causes for concern, HTS has managed to unite Syrian groups. It has extended an olive branch to members of the Syrian army to lay down their arms. It represents the best hope for a new, democratic future for Syria. There is optimism in the air and for good reason. The former president of Syria has fled without bloodshed. There is real hope that a better future is possible. Anything is better than the Al-Assads. 

What comes next?

The release of thousands of prisoners from across the country – most of whom will have been arbitrarily detained political prisoners, almost all of whom will have experienced torture – is a wonderful win that can’t be taken away no matter what comes next. Syrian prisons, including those in Tadmor and Sednaya, are notorious for torture and arbitrary executions. I was never allowed to visit the ancient site of Palmyra – despite my pleas – because my husband was so worried about its location near Tadmor prison. The stories of what happened in those hell-holes will now be able to be told freely and people will be held accountable. A truth and justice reconciliation commission would be a good idea to build into the transition plan because every detained person will have a story they may want to tell: talking and justice would be better than revenge.

Syrians will revel in the chance of speaking freely of what they have experienced. For the first time in their lives they won’t have to worry about openly criticising the regime. Being able to say what you want is a thing we in New Zealand often take for granted. 

These wins are hard to underestimate. But the people of Syria will want to see more: they will want a peaceful transition of power and democratic elections in perhaps 18 months to two years from now. They saw what happened in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and right next door in Iraq: they will want something better. The UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, will already be holding conversations and hopefully trying to implement the transition that was meant to happen when the UN Security Council passed resolution 2254 in 2015. The role of outside powers will (one hopes) be limited. 

The Arab League ought to stay well clear of the transition process: they lost all credibility (if indeed they had had any with the Syrian people at least) when they warmly welcomed back Al-Assad in May 2023. Those hugs and handshakes will come back to haunt those leaders: the blood of the Syrian people is spread over a lot of hands.

I am conscious that “what comes next” is going to be vexed and difficult but the Syrian people, with the help of the UN, guided by international law, need to decide the future of the Syrian people.

The roadmap for a peaceful transition to a democratic future in Syria already exists and it’s ready to be actioned. I am cautiously optimistic because a new day has dawned and although the road ahead may be bumpy at times (it would be unusual if the path were smooth and unproblematic) there is going to be a new future for Syrians. 

We should all be hopeful for what the future in Syria could look like – God knows the people of that country deserve a peaceful future. 

Alf mabrook (congratulations) to all Syrians: you are a generous and hospitable people, you deserve a lot better than the Al-Assads and the Ba’ath Party. I salute you all for your patience and tenacity, and I wish you the best on your new journey. I hope you can return home and live in a free, democratic state with the rule of law, human rights, free speech and all the things you’ve been fighting for.

The events on the ground, as described above, are changing rapidly and the details above were correct at the time of writing on the afternoon of December 9, 2024.